Monthly Report February 2025

Esteemed investors

Market development in February

The European stock markets were able to achieve further price gains in February. In EUR terms, the DAX rose by 3.8% and the Swiss Performance Index by 2.4%. Donald Trump's somewhat erratic behavior and the introduction of tariffs and countertariffs weighed on the US stock market. Accordingly, the S&P 500 fell by 1.3% and the MSCI World world stock index by 0.7% (both in USD). The MSCI Emerging Markets index came under pressure with the introduction of new trade barriers at the end of the month, had to give up a large part of its price gains and closed with an increase of 0.5% in USD. Increasing economic concerns caused long-term US interest rates to fall further and also led to temporarily lower interest rates in EUR and CHF and thus higher bond prices. Crude oil reacted to the larger uncertainties with a price drop of 3.3%, while the price of gold rose by a further 2.1% (both in USD) despite a setback at the end of the month.

Economic uncertainties are increasing

After the US purchasing managers' index for the manufacturing sector came as a positive surprise at the beginning of February, signs of a slowdown in economic growth increased over the course of the month. The announcement and partial introduction of new tariffs by the USA against China, Canada and Mexico as well as on important raw materials such as steel and aluminum are weighing on corporate and consumer sentiment. As the affected countries are responding with countermeasures, increased frictions in global trade and, as a result, higher prices are to be expected. In addition, the latent uncertainty is putting pressure on the willingness to invest and consume, which slows down economic dynamics. The US stock market in particular has recently reacted to this conflict situation with share prices.

Swiss stock market: driven by Nestlé

The Swiss stock market was significantly driven by an increase in Nestlé shares of 12.4% in February, while medium-sized and smaller companies fell by 0.7% on average. The publication of the annual figures has generally led to increased volatility at individual stock level. In this difficult market environment, after a strong January, all format investments fell short of their respective benchmarks for once. The returns on funds, mandates and key individual investments are included in the usual form.

Successful launch of the Absolute Return Fund format

The launch of the newly launched Absolute Return format was very encouraging, with a performance of 1.2% in January. We expect this fund to have an average annual performance of 4-5%, which corresponds to a monthly return of 0.3-0.4%. Due to the valuation of the underlying investments, the performance calculation for Format Absolute Return is postponed by one month at a time.

Looking ahead to March

In March, more companies in Switzerland will report on their business performance over the past year. In addition to these figures, investors will focus heavily on data on economic developments and further announcements or measures in the tariff dispute. As recent weeks have already shown, volatility is likely to remain elevated in this environment.

Matthias Hug and Markus Lackner